16 novembro 2002

CONTAMINANTES
Too Much Ventured Nothing Gained: In three years, from 1999 to 2001, venture capitalists raised $204 billion to back young companies in what are now known as Bubble Funds. That's a lot of money, but to appreciate the magnitude, match it against the past: Between 1970 and 1998, VCs attracted a total of $132 billion to finance startups. In other words they raised more money in three manic years than they had during the nearly three decades that preceded them. If you include money from previously raised funds, VCs have $252 billion in capital under management today.
Now consider the pickle in which the industry finds itself. Venture funds run ten years. To earn 18% annual returns for their investors--the low end of historical venture capital returns--the funds would have to create $1.3 trillion in market value by selling or taking public their portfolio companies over the remainder of the decade.
Think about it this way. eBay is one of the few successes to emerge from the dot-com boom. At its peak, eBay had a $16 billion market value, and its venture backer, Benchmark Capital, made more than $4 billion on its investment. So how many eBays would have to be taken public by the end of a decade for venture investors to achieve 18% returns? More than 325. That's roughly one eBay every 10 days between now and 2010.
Obviously that's not going to happen.