Can Riots Be Predicted? Experts Watch Food Prices: can food prices actually help predict when social unrest is likely to break out?
Yes, say a group of researchers who use mathematical modeling to describe how food prices behave. Earlier this summer, their model had predicted that the U.S. drought would push corn and wheat prices high enough to spark social unrest in other parts of the world.
"Now, of course, we do see this happening," says Yaneer Bar-Yam of the New England Complex Systems Institute in Cambridge, Mass. And unless those food prices come down, the researchers warned last week, more waves of riots are coming.
Obviously, there are complex social reasons why people riot.