Predicting the market evolution of computers: was the revolution really unforeseen
This is a study of how people viewed the future prospects for computers from their inception in the mid-1940s to their establishment as an unequivocal market success in 1964. Based on a reading of the published record it compares two hypotheses, one that holds that no one foresaw the tremendous potential of computers – an error of under guessing – the other that holds that most market forecasts are far too optimistic, a error of over guessing. It concludes that only before 1950 did experts fail to foresee the ways in which computers would change our lives. After that date, expectations soared saved only by the fact the sales likewise soared.
