30 junho 2004

ECOPOL

"Confiem em mim, eu saberei encontrar uma solução no momento certo." Durão Barroso
"Ele [Durão] pediu para confiar nele e confiamos. Quero pedir-lhe para também confiar em cada um de nós." Pedro Santana Lopes (in Público, 23 de Maio de 2004, no XXV Congresso do PSD)
The European Commission's new president: The European Union?s leaders have finally agreed on a new president of the European Commission: Portugal?s prime minister, José Manuel Durão Barroso. Though the row over the commission?s new boss is over, the bitterness will not fade so soon
[...] José Manuel Durão Barroso, currently prime minister of Portugal, is a widely respected figure from the centre-right but he is also a compromise figure. He was hardly anyone?s first choice, rather the best remaining option once those candidates that offended one or more of the EU?s biggest members were eliminated from the race. On Tuesday June 29th, EU heads of government met in Brussels to nominate Mr Durão Barroso to the job. If, as expected, he is confirmed by the European Parliament in a vote next month, he will take over in November. [...]
So after another week-and-a-half of discussions, the job of running the commission (which proposes and enforces the EU?s never ending stream of new laws) has fallen to the relatively little-known Mr Durão Barroso. He has done a good job running Portugal. Since coming to power in 2002, he has pushed through an austerity programme to bring the country?s budget deficit back within the limits that members of the European single currency are supposed to observe (whereas France and Germany have continued to exceed the limits). Britain likes him because Portugal stood with other Atlanticist EU countries in supporting the American-led war in Iraq. The European Parliament is sure to approve because he comes from the centre-right, and centre-right parties did best at the parliament?s elections this month.
What is slightly harder to read is why France and Germany have gone along. Unlike Mr Chirac and Mr Schröder, Mr Durão Barroso is no ?federalist? (in Europe, this means a supporter of a stronger EU centre at the expense of national governments). And it is rather soon for differences over Iraq to have been forgotten. But the French and the Germans may have accepted Mr Durão Barroso in the hope of being able to work around him. [...]
The consensus behind Mr Durão Barroso may have been constructed with the help of a number of such backroom deals, in which various other juicy EU jobs that are up for grabs are shared around. [...]
Mr Durão Barroso?s most enthusiastic backers will expect him to hold to his liberal economic line. Will he succeed? As a clearly last-ditch candidate for his job, rather than a powerful figure who had strong support from the beginning, he may start off in a weak position. Pessimists are already comparing him to Jacques Santer, Mr Prodi?s predecessor, who was a weak compromise figure who accomplished little in office before his commission was brought down by a petty-fraud scandal.
The choice of Mr Durão Barroso does not answer Henry Kissinger?s famous question, of who to ring if he wanted to speak to the leader of Europe. That job?the new, full-time presidency of the European Council, will be the subject of another bunfight at a later date. But at least the EU now has a new head for its executive arm and an agreed constitution. However, the hard work is far from over. Ten or more countries may hold referendums on the constitution and in several?especially Britain and Poland?the voters could say no. All 25 countries must ratify the document or it is dead. And the difficulty in reaching the final document?leaving the French and Germans sour that Britain stopped it being a federalist triumph?will mean that Mr Durão Barroso will begin his job in a climate of lingering bitterness. The compromise candidate will no doubt need all his skills to craft compromises of his own.